“It’ll be fine” and other lies we tell ourselves

How normalcy bias can quietly sabotage your decisions

Mar 06, 2025

I started drafting this article three weeks ago, feeling a bit uneasy that it might come off as overly dramatic or premature. At the time, normalcy bias seemed like an interesting cognitive quirk—a fun fact to pull out at dinner parties—rather than an urgent, daily reality. Yet here we are, a mere six weeks into the Trump administration, and events that once seemed impossible or at least highly improbable are unfolding faster than a season of Black Mirror. Suddenly, normalcy bias isn't just a curiosity; it's actively shaping how we interpret the world around us.

The subtle illusion of stability

Normalcy bias is our brain's version of a default screensaver: a comforting loop that keeps playing regardless of what's happening in the background. It tells us “Everything will be fine—it’s always been fine before.” It's like sitting on a train that’s slowly veering off the tracks but thinking, “Surely someone would say something if this was serious.”

This bias is useful because without it we would likely live in a constant state of anxiety, but it also means we often fail to spot real threats until they’re too close to ignore. Think back to early 2020, when reports of COVID-19 started trickling in. Many of us—including me—shrugged it off, convinced the world couldn't possibly change so dramatically. It’s a classic case of normalcy bias in action: clinging to past experiences to avoid discomfort, even as the evidence piles up that things are about to get very different.

Why we miss the obvious

Several psychological quirks reinforce our tendency for normalcy bias, making us experts at ignoring the obvious:

Cognitive comfort: Our brains are not big fans of discomfort—recognising potential disasters is unsettling, so we often dismiss warnings to keep things feeling normal.

“I’ll deal with it if it happens.” When reports of political and economic instability emerge, many of us keep our heads down, avoiding the mental hassle of preparing for disruptions.

Optimism bias: We like to believe that bad things happen to other people, not us.

“That’s only a problem for them.” Whether it’s climate change impacts, international conflicts, or shifting trade policies, we assume the consequences will only affect distant places—until they don’t.

Lack of experience: If we’ve never experienced a particular crisis before, it’s difficult to imagine it actually happening.

“That won’t happen here.” Regions unaccustomed to extreme weather often dismiss climate warnings, only to be caught off guard when floods or wildfires break long-standing norms.

Information overload: In a world of constant alerts, real threats become just another ping on our phones.

“It’s just more noise.” With so many warnings—from health risks to cyber threats—genuine dangers get lost in the static, leading to missed opportunities for action.

Social conformity: When in doubt, we look to others for cues. And if everyone else seems calm, we mirror their inaction, even when we know better.

“Everyone else seems fine.” During crises, a lack of visible concern can create a dangerous collective inertia.

Example scenario: when digital stability disappears overnight

Imagine waking up to find your digital tools no longer work—cloud storage is inaccessible, communication apps are down, and online banking is disrupted. The reason? A major U.S. tech provider has unexpectedly cut off access to Europe, citing compliance issues with new regulations.

At first, most people assume it’s a temporary glitch—they carry on with their routines, thinking, “I’m sure they’ll sort it out quickly.” As the disruption drags on, businesses begin to struggle. Meetings are missed, transactions fail, and logistics grind to a halt but few had prepared for this kind of scenario. Warnings about the fragility of digital infrastructure had been circulating for years, but they were lost amid everyday alerts about other risks from climate change to cyber threats.

By the time reality hits, the window for effective action has closed.

Those who had seen the signs months earlier in reports about digital dependency risks and debates about tech regulations had hesitated to take action. “If no one else is setting up local backups or exploring alternatives, maybe it’s not that serious.” Retrospective reports show the risks were clear, but normalcy bias had kept everyone anchored to the comforting belief that digital stability would continue uninterrupted as it always had before.

This scenario might seem extreme, but the European Union is already investing in iniatives to reduce its dependence on external tech providers and build resilience against exactly this kind of disruption (see links at the end). Real-world incidents like the global IT outages of summer 2025 show how quickly things can unravel—when a faulty update led to millions of systems crashing worldwide, critical sectors such as airlines, banks, and emergency services were paralysed overnight. Despite prior warnings about the risks of over-reliance on single cybersecurity providers, many organisations were caught off guard—normalcy bias at its most costly.

Implications for decision-making

Normalcy bias isn't just about how we see threats—it's also about how (or if) we respond to them. It's the cognitive equivalent of seeing smoke, smelling smoke, but thinking, “Well, no one else is running, so it must be fine.”

When normalcy bias is in play, decision-making tends to go off the rails in specific ways:

Delayed reactions: We often wait too long to act, assuming if things were really serious, others would be doing something. It’s like standing at a bus stop, watching the bus catch fire, but only getting on your feet when everyone else does—by which point, the bus is toast.
Overconfidence in stability: When we believe the future will mirror the past, we miss opportunities to prepare. In the digital scenario, businesses could have set up local backups or tested alternative tools, but the thought that “it’s always been fine before” kept them comfortably unprepared.
Underestimating risk: When every alert feels like background noise, real threats are easy to dismiss. In a world where warnings about extreme weather, economic instability, and cyber threats are just another Tuesday, it’s tempting to think, “If it were really bad, someone would do something.”

The good news is that recognising normalcy bias is like realising the smoke alarm is beeping for a reason—you can step back, reassess, and take action even if no one else has moved yet.

Strategies to overcome normalcy bias

Normalcy bias is like a hypnotist who keeps whispering, “Everything is fine.”

You don't have to keep staring at the swinging pocket watch, though—here are some general strategies to avoid being caught off guard:

Scenario planning: Regularly play out “what if” scenarios. You don’t need to become a doomsday prepper—just imagine a few detours to your regular routines and see where the gaps are.
Stay selectively informed: Pick a few credible sources and tune out the rest. If you treat every alert like it’s the apocalypse, the real warning signs will blend into the noise.
Take small steps early: When risks start to emerge, take a small step—back up your data, try a new app, stash some emergency cash. It’s not about panic; it’s about making future-you grateful that past-you wasn’t asleep at the wheel.
Diversify your dependencies: Whether it’s tech tools, financial strategies, or even your morning coffee supply, avoid having all your eggs in one fragile basket. Alternatives are like insurance—boring until you need them.
Build adaptability into your routine: Every so often, try a “tech-free Tuesday” or test a new route to work. Adaptability is a muscle, and a little exercise now will make it stronger when things get weird.

For example, if the digital disruption scenario became real, here are three questions to consider:

Is your data safe if the cloud goes dark? Do you have offline backups of critical documents, both for your business and personal life? If your e-books, music, or treasured digital photos vanished overnight, would you still have access to them?
Could you navigate the world without digital tools? If GPS and digital maps went offline, could you still find your way? Would you know how to access important information without the internet?
How resilient is your routine to a digital blackout? What would happen if your go-to apps stopped working? Have you ever tested what breaks when the Wi-Fi does—or is your plan just to hope it never happens?

What to do when normal isn't normal anymore

Normalcy bias is like being in a sitcom where the laugh track plays over increasingly chaotic scenes. It feels safe, predictable—until the punchline hits, and it’s not a joke. The goal isn’t to live in a state of constant alarm but to cultivate a mindset that’s prepared, adaptable, and able to handle a few surprises without panic.

Recognising normalcy bias isn’t about becoming a doomsday prepper or building a bunker in your back garden. It’s more like keeping an umbrella in your bag—not because you expect a storm every day but because you know forecasts aren’t always right.

Whether it’s a digital outage, a supply chain hiccup, or just a really bad Tuesday, the ability to pivot quickly is invaluable. The smartest move isn’t to predict every twist and turn of the future—it’s to be ready to roll with whatever comes next, without letting normalcy bias keep you stuck in a story that no longer makes sense.

So, the next time you catch yourself thinking, “It’ll be fine—it’s always been fine,” pause for a moment and check if that’s confidence talking or just normalcy bias trying to keep you cosy.

In a world where stability can sometimes be the biggest illusion, the smartest move isn’t to predict the future—it’s to be ready for anything.

P.S. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by the news, try a different lens!

One of the reasons normalcy bias is so powerful is because the cognitive load of constantly re-evaluating what’s happening around us is exhausting. When reality starts to feel like a Black Mirror episode, sometimes it helps to embrace that perspective—if only to make sense of the chaos.

That’s why I created a handful of custom GPTs to help you reframe the news through different, sometimes irreverent, lenses:

The Black Mirror Interpreter GPT: Because when every headline feels dystopian, it helps to lean in. This GPT explains current events as if they’re plot twists in a futuristic drama—offering a bit of narrative clarity when reality feels stranger than fiction.
The Good Place GPT: Provides a relentlessly upbeat take on today’s news—until you realise it’s actually the bad place. Because sometimes, a spoonful of sugar helps the existential dread go down.
The Onion GPT: Translates real headlines into satirical fever dreams. When the world already feels like satire, why not lean in?
The TechBro GPT: Disrupts traditional news interpretation with cutting-edge, paradigm-shifting analysis. Warning: may cause involuntary eye-rolling.
The Ancient Historian GPT: Narrates modern events like a Philomena Cunkesque historian chronicling the tragic fall of a once-great civilisation—with the bemused confusion of someone who can’t believe we were this stupid.
InfomercialGPT: Transforms every news event into an exclusive, limited-time offer you won’t believe! (Act now, while supplies last!).

When the mental load of interpreting every new development feels too heavy, sometimes a fresh lens—or a bit of humour—can make all the difference. Give them a try and see which one helps you make sense of the surreal!